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Commercial property cycle offers opportunities for investors

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Commercial property cycle offers opportunities for investors.


There are still excellent opportunities for commercial investors in retail and industrial sectors thanks to the current property cycle, according to an expert. 

Property valuer and strategist Sam Tamblyn believes there are four phases to the commercial property cycle including recovery, expansion, hyper-supply and recession—each presenting unique opportunities for investors.

"Recovery, is when property starts moving up from the bottom of the trough," Mr Tamblyn said. "This can often be a good time to pick up properties at a steep discount."

During the expansion phase, Mr Tamblyn said that rising demand and falling vacancy rates create opportunities for development. "This phase can present opportunities to start a development or upgrade as the market rises," he said.

Mr Tamblyn warned that the hyper-supply phase, characterised by oversupply and declining prices, could be a good time for property owners to sell. "Property owners looking to sell would do well to divest before the next and final phase," he advised.

Regarding the current state of different commercial property sectors, Mr Tamblyn provided insights on office, retail and industrial properties. "For office property, the answer is that it is still in the recessionary phase," he said. "Big office landlords are selling assets and carrying out significant write-downs of the properties they're holding on to."

However, he cautioned investors against rushing into office properties without careful consideration. "On the face of it, this might look like a good time to buy, but investors need to be careful that they're not catching a falling knife," Mr Tamblyn warned.

In contrast, he said that retail property appears to be in the recovery phase, citing recent high-profile deals in Western Australia as evidence of renewed confidence.

For industrial property, Mr Tamblyn said the situation varies by location. "In Sydney, the market looks like it's still in the expansionary phase," he said. "Rents are growing strongly and supply is constrained because of a lack of development opportunities."

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