Elections have minimal impact on the property market
Better Loan Solutions in Mornington Peninsula • Learning Centre • Insights
Better Loan Solutions in Mornington Peninsula • Learning Centre • Insights
Federal elections have little effect on Australia's property market, despite common perceptions, according to new research. Analysis of data
from the past seven federal elections by Domain shows neither major political party holds a significant advantage in boosting property
market growth.
Liberal terms saw slightly better house price growth at 3.1 per cent compared to Labor's 2.9 per cent, while Labor governments oversaw
stronger unit price growth at 4.5 per cent versus 1.4 per cent under Liberal leadership.
Domain's Chief of Research and Economics, Dr Nicola Powell, said the property market is influenced by factors beyond politics. "The
property market is shaped by forces beyond politics," Dr Powell said. "While elections can affect policy and sentiment, the
reality is far more complex than our long-held beliefs suggest."
The research did reveal some surprising insights about auction performance on election days.
Despite sellers typically avoiding scheduling auctions on election days, with numbers dropping by 50 per cent, those that do proceed achieve
higher clearance rates than auctions held on surrounding weekends.
Auctions held on election days recorded an average clearance rate of 60.4 per cent, outperforming those held the Saturday before (59.5 per
cent) and after (59.8 per cent) election day. This suggests election day might be an opportunity for sellers rather than a disadvantage.
Domain's data indicates that property transactions remain historically stable during election periods, challenging the common perception
that elections cause buyers to pause their property purchases. This suggests short-term electoral events don't significantly disrupt buying
behaviour. However, prolonged political uncertainty can have an impact on the property market over time.
Domain's modelling shows that even a one-point increase in political uncertainty can result in a decline of 8.08 property sales, with
extended periods of uncertainty potentially leading to thousands of lost transactions.
First home buyer activity showed some minor differences between different government terms. Labor governments saw higher first home
owner-occupier loans at 34.4 per cent compared to 30.5 per cent during Liberal terms, indicating some policy differences may influence
certain segments of the market.
The findings suggest property investors and homebuyers should focus less on which party is in power and more on fundamental market drivers
when making property decisions. "While elections can affect policy and sentiment, the reality is far more complex than our long-held
beliefs suggest," Dr Powell said.
Consider a balanced property portfolio including both residential
and commercial investments based on your goals. We're here to
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